The week of 29 Jun – 5 Jul 2026
Every read we stood behind that week, and what the market did next.
This week's scorecard
These calls were retired, not scored. They were made before we published a forecast horizon, so we would have been judging them by a rule they never saw. The track record explains the reset — and starts from the first honestly-dated call.
- Mon, Jun 29Sideways · 50%retired
Crypto markets face sustained ETF outflow pressure
Extreme fear sentiment combined with record-breaking ETF outflows suggests the market is struggling to find a firm bottom despite stablecoin liquidity.
- Tue, Jun 30Sideways · 50%retired
Bitcoin Faces Pressure Amid Outflows and Macro Shi
The strong negative correlation between Bitcoin and the USD/JPY exchange rate suggests that broader macroeconomic shifts are overriding traditional crypto-specific narratives.
- Wed, Jul 1More likely down · 55%retired
ETF Outflows Trigger Deep Market Correction
The record-breaking $4.5 billion outflow from US spot Bitcoin ETFs in June has severely damaged short-term market structure, driving sentiment into extreme fear and overshadowing corporate treasury buying.
- Thu, Jul 2More likely up · 50%retired
Market Rebounds Amid Heavy Short Liquidations
While extreme fear and ETF outflows dominate the medium-term outlook, a massive wave of short liquidations has triggered a sharp, short-term relief rally across major assets.
- Fri, Jul 3Sideways · 55%retired
ETF Inflows Return as Market Stabilizes
The return of positive US spot ETF inflows over $200 million provides a strong liquidity floor, neutralizing negative regulatory headlines and stabilizing the market.
- Sat, Jul 4More likely up · 55%retired
Whale Accumulation Offsets ETF Outflows
The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between massive institutional ETF outflows and aggressive on-chain whale accumulation, with macroeconomic relief tilting the immediate path of least resistance upward.
- Sun, Jul 5Sideways · 50%retired
Bitcoin Eyes Reversal Amid Extreme Fear
While extreme fear and technical indicators suggest the market may be carving out a bottom, the heavy streak of ETF outflows remains the primary obstacle to a sustained upward trend.
Probabilistic analysis, not financial advice.